The best opportunities in the healthcare industry over the next ten years lie in China

In addition,Lei Juncreated body health monitoringXiaomiwristbands and Xiaomi scales, exploring large health data;Tencentintegrates practicing physician resources and launches health consultation services;Baidualso developed Baidu Health...Bigwigs from all walks of life have rushed into this battlefield of large health through self-construction or investment and mergers and acquisitions, and cross-border cooperation.

Large health has risen to a national strategy.

Multiple policies provide escort.

The prospects for the health industry's development – the future is here!

A massive potential consumer market of 1.3 billion people

With the potential spending power and purchasing power of a population exceeding 1.3 billion, China will become the world's largest market for the health industry.

Over 300 million elderly people with increasingly high health needs

China faces the challenge of aging before becoming wealthy, and the elderly are increasingly concerned about their health needs.

500 million people with chronic diseases, with numbers showing an exponential trend

Chronic diseases (cardiovascular diseases, various cancers, hypertension, hyperglycemia, etc.) account for 85% of all disease-related deaths. If left unchecked, the number will increase exponentially in the future.

16 trillion yuan capital frenzy

The "Healthy China" strategy clearly states that by 2030, the total scale of the health service industry will reach 16 trillion yuan.

Top Ten Investment Hotspots in the Greater Health Industry

Market Size Forecast

The elderly care industry market size will reach 3.4 trillion yuan in 2020

Population aging benefits the elderly care industry. Calculated at 10,000 yuan per person per year, the current market size of the elderly care industry exceeds 2 trillion yuan.

According to data from the National Committee on Aging, the number of people aged 60 and above will reach 248 million in 2020, with an aging rate of 17%. From 2015 to 2020, with economic development and changes in the national concept of elderly care, the consumption level of the elderly will also increase. Calculated using GDP growth as the annual per capita consumption growth rate, assuming a compound annual growth rate of 6.5% over the next five years, then by 2020, the annual consumption per elderly person will be approximately 13,700 yuan, and the market size of the elderly care industry will reach 3.4 trillion yuan.

Facing a market size exceeding 2 trillion yuan, companies can focus on six major areas: elderly care real estate, elderly care services, elderly care finance and insurance, elderly care daily necessities, elderly care entertainment, and elderly care education.

1. The elderly care industry has high upfront capital requirements, a long investment return cycle, low short-term returns, difficult professional management, and high requirements for supporting service facilities. Market entrants need to be wary of risks.

2. Judging from the current market players, the profit model is still under exploration, and the market still needs to be cultivated.

3. Health preservation, nursing, and treatment. The entry barriers for these three professional fields are quite high, and not easily overcome by ordinary service providers. There are certain thresholds.

4. In the face of the risks in the elderly care industry, enterprises can learn from the experience of Japan and the United States, where the elderly care industry is more developed.

Over 50 billion yuan market gap in health management needs to be filled

The potential planning for China's health management market is approximately 60 billion yuan, while the current stage has only completed about 3 billion yuan, leaving a gap of over 50 billion yuan to be filled. The health management industry has enormous potential for future development. Among them, health examination centers, in-vitro diagnostics, trace element detection, reproductive health, TCM health preservation, confinement centers, and rehabilitation centers are the most promising areas for investment.
Health management is in the market cultivation stage, with low market awareness, and some health management concepts are not yet widely accepted by the public. The industry's overall profitability is relatively low, but the profitability of sub-sectors such as health checkups is relatively good. As people's understanding of health management deepens, a huge market will emerge. Health management has a moderate threshold, with no stringent requirements for capital or technology. Enterprises should plan early.

Market size expected to reach 1.8 trillion yuan in the next ten years

Commercial medical insurance is a sunrise industry. With the improvement of medical informatization level, the market size has reached the level of hundreds of billions of yuan, and it is expected to reach 1.8 trillion yuan in the next ten years.

With the government's promotion of the construction of major illness medical insurance, the premiums for major illness medical insurance have exploded. In the first half of 2015, premiums for major illness medical insurance were approximately 17.2 billion yuan, exceeding the 15.6 billion yuan for the whole of 2014. In the major illness medical insurance field, China Life and PICC basically share the entire market, with China Life accounting for more than half of the market share, followed by PICC, with a market share of 42% in 2014 and 45% in the first half of 2015.

1. The front end of the commercial medical insurance industry chain consists of pharmaceutical and medical equipment manufacturers and distributors.

2. The middle end consists of insurance intermediaries and agent banks.

3. The back end consists of social medical insurance institutions, commercial medical insurance providers, medical service providers, insurance assessors, the government, lawyers, etc.

4. The main business models include managed care, integrated care, third-party management, and medical insurance cooperation.

Medical beauty may reach a scale of 110 billion yuan in 2019

In 2015, cosmetic surgery in China accounted for more than 16% of the global total, making it the third largest cosmetic surgery country in the world. Women are the main force in medical beauty, accounting for 83% of consumers, and the age of medical beauty consumers is showing a clear trend of younger age.

From 2009 to 2015, China's medical beauty industry maintained a compound annual growth rate of 15%, with non-surgical medical beauty growing faster than the overall industry, reaching 18.9%, while surgical medical beauty grew at only 10.7%. China's medical beauty service industry is highly fragmented, with over 24,000 medical beauty institutions and clinics.

Public hospital medical beauty departments account for 34% of the market share, privately-owned single-store operations account for 26%, privately-owned chain operations account for 21%, and 19% are illegal beauty salons.

The market size of online medical care is showing an exponential growth trend

In recent years, online medical care in China has developed rapidly. In 2014, the market size of online medical care was 10.88 billion yuan, and in 2015, it exceeded 17 billion yuan. It is expected to exceed 50 billion yuan in the next 3-5 years.

Before 2010, online healthcare received very little investment. After 2010, it began to grow exponentially, with rapid increases in investment scale and numerous seed and angel rounds of funding. This shows that China's online healthcare industry is currently in a period of rapid growth and development.

The health tourism market is projected to reach a scale of hundreds of billions in the next five years.

Health tourism accounts for approximately 1% of the total tourism transaction volume. In 2015, the total transaction volume of China's tourism market was 4.13 trillion yuan, and the transaction volume of health tourism was approximately 40 billion yuan.

Currently, the health tourism market enjoys a favorable development environment with enormous growth potential. The market size of health tourism is expected to grow rapidly in the next five years, with a compound annual growth rate of around 20%. The market size is expected to reach around 100 billion yuan in 2020. As a composite industry combining the big health industry and the tourism industry, health tourism deserves the attention of investors.

1. From a geographical perspective, the health market is mainly centered in the Pearl River Delta region, radiating to overseas Chinese communities and the Asian market;

2. From an age perspective, the main target is the elderly population, with middle-aged people as a secondary target. The elderly population has a larger volume of leisure and vacation consumption, with their consumption needs mainly focused on medical care and longevity;

3. From a gender perspective, the main target is the female market, which has higher health care consumption and stronger purchasing power for health products;

4. From a business market perspective, health care consumption is large, and the demand for health catering is high. Consumers place greater emphasis on the grade and Specification of ecological health venues, resulting in higher consumption.

The compound annual growth rate of smart healthcare is expected to be around 30% in the next five years.

Approximately 47% of hospitals in China have formulated comprehensive informatization plans, and about 95% of hospitals have formulated partial or comprehensive informatization development plans. Currently, the per capita investment in medical informatization in China is about US$2.5, which is only 3% of the US level of nearly US$85 per capita. In 2015, the market size of smart healthcare in China was about 26 billion yuan. The compound annual growth rate is expected to be around 30% in the next five years, and the market size is expected to reach about 100 billion yuan by 2020.

Hospital informatization (smart hospital system), regional medical informatization (regional health system), and health management informatization (family and personal health management) are the three most important sub-sectors of smart healthcare, together forming the pyramid of smart healthcare.

1. Hospital informatization dominates the flow of resources and information within the hospital, forming the most basic part of smart healthcare;

2. Regional medical informatization provides an opportunity for the sharing and interconnection of medical resources and information within the region;

3. The top of the pyramid is personal health management, which is the ultimate goal of the development of smart healthcare, realizing the transmission of medical resources and information to individuals.

4.  These three parts are interconnected, providing a practical solution for the circulation of medical resources and information that were originally confined to hospitals

to individuals.

Among these three sub-sectors, hospital informatization is the most mature, with a current domestic market size of about 7 billion yuan; regional medical informatization is second, currently in a period of rapid growth, with a current domestic market size of about 1.75 billion yuan; personal and family health management is still in its infancy, with a current domestic market size of about 2 billion yuan. However, compared to overseas markets, all sectors in China are in an expansion phase, with huge market potential, especially the health management module, which has a potential market space in the hundreds of billions.

The scale of the rehabilitation medical industry is expected to reach around 70 billion yuan by 2020.

It is predicted that the scale of China's rehabilitation medical industry will reach around 70 billion yuan by 2020, with a compound annual growth rate of no less than 20%.

China's total health expenditure has increased from 0.8 trillion yuan in 2005 to 3.9 trillion yuan in 2015, with its proportion of GDP steadily rising; the number of hospital admissions has also increased from 70 million to 200 million, and per capita health expenditure has quadrupled, indicating huge industry potential.

Currently, rehabilitation resources are mainly distributed among six major sectors: the China Disabled Persons' Federation, health, personnel and social security, civil affairs, education, and social organizations.

It is worth noting that although the demand for rehabilitation medicine in China is huge, the system is not perfect. There are 3,800 rehabilitation departments in comprehensive hospitals and rehabilitation specialized institutions in China, accounting for 28.4%; 98,992 rehabilitation beds, accounting for 2.2%; and 39,833 rehabilitation medical and nursing personnel, accounting for 0.72%. A systematic, complete, and sufficient rehabilitation medical supply system has not yet been formed. In addition, there is a lack of unified industry management standards; rehabilitation institutions are small, low-grade, and few in number, and their construction level needs to be improved; the positioning of rehabilitation institutions is unclear, and there is a lack of successful models to learn from.

The market size of pharmaceutical e-commerce is expected to reach 33 billion yuan by 2020.

China's pharmaceutical e-commerce is still in its early stages of growth, and the government's strict regulation of the sale of prescription drugs is a major constraint on its development.

During the 12th Five-Year Plan period, the overall scale of China's online pharmacy market rapidly increased from 400 million yuan in 2011 to 15.2 billion yuan in 2015, with a compound annual growth rate of 171.67% over five years. The penetration rate of China's pharmaceutical e-commerce is currently only 0.35%. In the next five years, the compound annual growth rate of pharmaceutical e-commerce is expected to reach more than 50%, and by 2020, the market size of pharmaceutical e-commerce in China will exceed 110 billion yuan.  

Currently, the products sold by pharmaceutical e-commerce mainly include four categories: medical devices, family planning supplies, pharmaceuticals, and health products. In the future, pharmaceutical logistics will inevitably move towards professionalization, and the third-party logistics model will become the main model for pharmaceutical logistics. The rapid development of pharmaceutical e-commerce will drive the demand for pharmaceutical cold chain logistics, bringing development opportunities to this industry.

The compound annual growth rate of gene sequencing is expected to exceed 20% in the next three years.

Globally, the gene sequencing market has developed rapidly in recent years, increasing from US$794 million in 2007 to US$4.5 billion in 2013, with a compound annual growth rate of 33.5%. It is expected to continue to grow rapidly in the next few years, reaching US$11.7 billion in 2018, with a compound annual growth rate of 21.1%.

The growth rate of gene sequencers has slowed down. The compound growth rate of sequencers is expected to be 15.4% from 2014 to 2020; the global market for bioinformatics in gene sequencing (currently the biggest difficulty and bottleneck in the sequencing industry) has a compound growth rate of 23% from 2012 to 2018. The downstream application market is mainly driven by scientific research, with tumor detection accounting for the largest market share. The development of the downstream application market is also the main source of future growth for the gene sequencing industry.

1. In the next few years, the demand for sequencers will gradually increase, and there will be good development opportunities in the next 5 years. Consumables matched with sequencers will also usher in new development opportunities.

套的耗材也将迎来新的发展机遇。

2. Non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT) is already widely used in developed countries such as Europe and the United States. In China, with the promotion of policies, the development of NIPT will enter the fast lane, and a vast market awaits it.

3. Gene sequencing is still in the exploration stage in the fields of tumor and cardiovascular personalized medicine, but it is also a future explosion point for the medical application of gene sequencing, with huge potential.